The former mayor of Bogotá (Colombia) Gustavo Petro. Via: Wikimedia Commons/Arturo de La Barrera

Many progressive Colombians had hope for positive change in the 2018 presidential election, with national unity resulting from a moderate candidate who could mount an effective campaign against the right wing neoliberal frontrunner. However, the first round of elections could not have gone more differently.

Sunday, May 27, marked the first of two rounds of elections with five major candidates competing. Right wing candidate Iván Duque led with 39 percent of the votes, followed by the leftist candidate Gustavo Petro, who narrowly defeated centrist mathematician Sergio Fajardo 25 percent to 23.75 percent to advance to the second round. This result means the second round will take place between a neoliberal politician representing the status quo, and a socialist, ex-guerrilla member, representative of change. As the Medellín Publimetro stated: “Petro vs. Duque: the choice is not in the center.”

The second round will take place on June 17, with a majority of the votes needed to win the presidency.

The initial round was not without controversy. Reports of voter fraud surfaced days after the election with questionable ballots appearing to have been altered in favor of Duque. The National Registry issued a press release claiming there were no irregularities, but with a history of voter fraud as recently as 2014, many Colombians demand answers. However, a full investigation into the matter seems unlikely.

Ivan Duque, Colombian presidential candidate. Photo: Casa de América/Flickr

Controversy aside, Duque remains the heavy favorite to win the election. Business friendly, Duque aims to lower taxes on the wealthiest population while expanding extractivist projects such as fracking, mining, and damming. To many, he represents a continuation of the establishment.

“Today, the Colombians have given us a vote of confidence in order to start a great transformation of Colombia,” Duque is quoted after the election. “The new generation’s moment has arrived and I’m certain that together we can steer Colombia onto the path to being a great country.”

A potential problem for Duque is that many believe that Álvaro Uribe, the controversial former president who hand-picked Duque, will almost certainly hold a vast amount of influence in the presidency.

Newly declassified cables from the U.S. State department show repeated accusations to Uribe’s narco connections.

“Uribe has a lot of baggage,” said Bogotá resident Edison Alarcón Lara. “He’s had nasty business dealings with narcos and paramilitaries his whole career.”

Petro, the leftist candidate and former mayor of the capital Bogotá, is a much more polarizing candidate. A former member of the M-19 guerrilla organization, Petro represents a change in the establishment that has had bouts with corruption. Notably, Petro’s victory signifies the first time a socialist candidate advanced to the second round of the Colombian elections.

“We are advancing steadily, constantly, always forward. You can be certain we’re going to overcome all of this, that we will change the history of Colombia,” Petro said after receiving news of victory in the first round of elections. “We are the generation of peace, of democracy and it is up to us to change this beautiful territory named Colombia into a peaceful country so these boys and girls never have to live through the violence we lived through.”

However, his socialist policies remain a bit too similar to Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro,  in the eyes of many Colombians. His history in the guerilla group M19 has led many to discount his policies as leftist extremism. It seems unlikely that Petro can gather enough support amongst the neutrals to defeat Duque.

“No,” Alarcón Lara said bluntly when asked if Petro had a chance to win. “The same guys have been in power year after year for almost 200 years. The traditional infrastructure and machinery in Colombia have control of the media and resources. If you compare the budget of Petro and Duque, it’s not even fair.”

A major issue of the election is what to do with the former guerrilla group, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army (FARC). As a former guerilla member himself, a win by Petro would be highly beneficial in the continued assimilation of the FARC into society as well as peace with other active guerrilla groups. A win by Duque, who has been highly critical of the peace process, would likely hinder progress towards a complete peace throughout the country.

Domestically, the Colombian people desire for change. Income inequality remains high throughout the region. Schools, health care, and infrastructure remain undeveloped. Political corruption remains a problem. But are either of the candidates up to the task?

“I’m not capable of choosing between these options for the least bad,” said Medellín native, Sebastian Velasquez. “And so I will vote en blanco in the second round: I vote in protest.”

Michael Middleton is an intern at El Tecolote and is currently studying to obtain his Master’s degree in International Studies from the University of San Francisco. He is currently living in Medellín, Colombia, where he’ll be for the entirety of the summer in order to conduct research for his capstone project.